Experts are projecting that excess mortality rates resulting from the economic strain of the coronavirus crisis will amount to about 900,000 over the next 15 years.
In a recent paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, experts concluded the following:
“We find that increases in unemployment are followed by statistically significant increases in death rates and declines in life-expectancy.”
The economists from Harvard University, Duke University, and John Hopkins University predict that the unemployment rates that will come as a result of the pandemic will lead to the deaths of about 890,000 to 1.37 million people in the next 15 to 20 years.
The researchers predict that African Americans will be disproportionately affected by this problem with a higher mortality rate than other communities and a decrease in life expectancy of about 15 years.
“African-Americans experience larger unemployment shocks and the effects of these shocks on unemployment are more persistent,” the team said. “The effects on life expectancy and death rates are more severe for African-Americans, overall.”
The research team made their predictions by using data on life expectancy and death rates in non-pandemic times without excessive blows to the national rate of unemployment.
Keeping in mind the unemployment rates for 2020, they came to the conclusion that the national mortality rate will rise by about 3% in the 15 years to come, with a 0.50% life expectancy drop over the same period.
They also say that their research “might be a conservative projection,” when noting that the unemployment data doesn’t reflect the number of people who have been struggling due to work restrictions meant to stop the rise in Covid-related cases and deaths.
“Our results suggest that the toll of lives claimed by the [coronavirus pandemic] far exceeds those immediately related to the acute COVID-19 critical illness and that the recession caused by the pandemic can jeopardize population health for the next two decades,” the team said.
According to the Labor Department applications for unemployment benefits have quadrupled since the start of the pandemic.
As of January 2021, over 24 million people have been infected and more than 400,000 have died as a result of Covid-19 in the United States alone.
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